The big news this week is: It’s FED week. On Wednesday, the FED Board of Governors meets and releases its economic projections as well as its decisions regarding monetary policy.  But how reliable are these projections and decisions? The data that has been collected and released since the last meeting will be analyzed and they will try to read the tea leaves to determine whether the economy is on the right track. Jerome Powell will stick his head out of a hole and if he sees his shadow, we will have 6 more weeks of inflation…

One key thing to think about this week is that we are seeing wildly huge revisions to past data as new data is released. We see that numbers where 1/10th of a percent (.1% or .001) can make a huge difference in the bond market being revised by huge numbers. Last week’s jobless claims also came with a huge downward revision to Jobless claims. We saw a 6% downward revision (112K jobs.)
One thing that this highlights is: how reliable is this data? How good is the data that the FED is basing its decisions on?

Other important data this week? Housing starts, Permits, and of course the Jobless numbers.

Technically, we see significant pressure on the Mortgage Backed Securities, and we potentially see some major fundamental issues cropping up as well. We have our finger firmly on the “lock” button and it’s feeling a little itchy.

Buckle up folks, it is going to be a wild ride!