The Houston Market Update From Rich Bonn at Habayit Home Loans

Houston buyers have something they have not had in a while. Leverage. More homes to choose from. Less competition from other buyers. Real negotiating power. Rich Bonn is breaking down exactly what the current data shows and what it means for buyers who are ready to move.

What the Houston Real Estate Numbers Are Actually Saying

All data referenced here comes from HAR.com.

Listings are up year over year by approximately half a percent. That means more inventory available for buyers to consider. Pending listings are down which means fewer homes are going under contract. The combination of more available homes and less buyer activity going to contract is exactly the definition of buyer leverage.

Market listings are down almost twelve and a half percent. Sellers understand it is going to take longer to sell their homes right now and that awareness is creating a different kind of seller. A seller who has been on the market longer than expected is a more motivated negotiating partner than a seller who listed last week with high confidence.

Closings are down twenty-one percent. That is a significant number. Fewer than four homes are closing for every five that closed in the same period last year. Showings are down. HAR listing activity is down. The market feels quieter and that quiet is exactly what creates opportunity for prepared buyers.

The September fresh report shows active listings up six and a half percent and new listings up three point three percent. The average list price is down but Rich makes an important distinction here. A lower average list price does not mean home values are collapsing. It means sellers are not pricing like it was 2021 when buyers were practically lining up to see any available listing. Pricing has become more realistic and that is different from a crash.

Is This the Beginning of a Crash?

Rich addresses this directly because it is the narrative some media outlets are pushing. The data does not support it. Prices are stabilizing. There is a possibility of modest price softening in some segments but nothing remotely resembling the conditions that would produce a dramatic collapse in values. The sky is not falling. Home values are not going to drop to a fraction of what buyers paid. This is a market normalization not a crisis.

What Is Happening in the Mortgage Market

Rates have moved higher over the past week. Rich uses MBS Highway, a service run by Barry Habib, for rate movement alerts and those alerts have been firing consistently as mortgage-backed securities yields have climbed. The ten-year Treasury has exceeded levels not seen since 2007.

The jobs report for September showed only twenty-nine thousand jobs created against an estimate of ninety thousand. That sounds like it might help rates but there is an important caveat. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has a pattern of revising previous months downward after initial releases. Earlier months were revised significantly, turning positive numbers negative. The initial report tends to look better than the eventual revised reality and the bond market has learned to be skeptical of BLS headline numbers.

Where did the jobs come from that were created? Healthcare added approximately seventeen thousand which is slower than normal but a consistent sector. Construction added eleven thousand which reflects the ongoing housing supply deficit. Manufacturing added modestly. Financial services lost jobs and has seen additional layoffs in the weeks following the report. Even government reduced headcount by seventeen thousand.

Fuel costs remain elevated. Expensive gasoline and diesel mean higher transportation costs across the supply chain which means goods reaching stores cost more which means inflationary pressure continues. As long as inflation remains elevated the bond market environment that drives mortgage rates higher stays in place.

What Houston Buyers Should Do Right Now

If you are looking at a house in Houston this is a genuine opportunity to negotiate. Motivated sellers, elevated days on market, and a buyer pool that is thinner than it was a year ago all point to real negotiating room that simply did not exist during the competitive peak.

If you find a rate you are comfortable with lock it. Do not sit and hope for meaningfully better because the direction of rates right now does not support waiting for improvement. Locking a workable rate today protects against further movement higher.

The tools available in the current Houston market are meaningful. Sellers paying closing costs. Temporary buydowns that reduce the rate and payment during year one and year two. Permanent buydowns that lock in a lower rate for the life of the loan. Any of these can be negotiated into an offer and each one makes the monthly payment more manageable right now without requiring the buyer to wait for a rate environment that may not arrive on any predictable timeline.

Reach out to Rich Bonn at Habayit Home Loans at 281-841-1723. Have a great week Houston.

Sources

HoustonAssociationofRealtors.com
MortgageNewsDaily.com
BLS.gov
TreasuryDirect.gov
ConsumerFinancialProtectionBureau.gov