Houston Housing Market Update: Showings Up 8.8 Percent, Inventory Tightening, and What Oil Prices Mean for Rates

A Market Moving in a Direction Sellers Should Pay Close Attention To

The Houston real estate market is showing meaningful signals this week and the data points are worth understanding clearly whether you are a buyer trying to time your move or a seller trying to understand how to position your home. Here is what the numbers are actually showing and why the broader economic picture matters for everyone in the market right now.

What the Houston Market Data Is Telling Us This Week

Showings were up 8.8 percent which is a significant jump in buyer activity that reflects genuine and growing interest in available properties. Listing views were up 3.8 percent. Closings were slightly down in the most recent reporting period but that number is a lagging indicator that does not reflect current activity accurately.

Here is why that closings number is misleading right now. The homes that went under contract in recent weeks will not show up in closing statistics until May or potentially June. The pipeline of pending transactions that has been building is going to produce a meaningful increase in reported closings in the weeks ahead. The activity is happening. The closing numbers just have not caught up yet.

Inventory is coming down. As Rich Bonn at Habayit Home Loans explains that is a significant signal for sellers. A tightening inventory environment rewards sellers who price their homes appropriately. If the home is priced to reflect current market conditions it will sell and it will sell relatively quickly. The window of opportunity for well-priced listings is strong right now and the inventory trend suggests it is going to get stronger.

Why Oil Prices Are the Most Important Factor in the Rate Story Right Now

The connection between what is happening with oil globally and what buyers are experiencing with mortgage rates is direct and it has been playing out exactly as anticipated since the Iranian conflict escalated in March.

Gas prices going up affects food costs, energy costs, transportation costs, and virtually every other category of consumer spending because energy is at the core of how everything in the economy moves from one place to another. That broad-based cost increase is inflationary and it showed up in both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index in recent readings.

The Producer Price Index came in 0.1 percent higher than the expected increase which added to the inflation pressure that bond markets have been responding to with higher yields. Higher yields mean higher mortgage rates and the rate environment this week reflects that dynamic directly.

Why Oil Prices Are Rising Even Though the US Is a Net Exporter

This is a question that comes up regularly and it deserves a clear answer. The United States is a net exporter of oil but the oil that much of the country actually uses is not the light sweet crude that domestic production primarily generates. It is heavier crude that has historically been sourced from places like the Middle East.

Beyond the product mix issue oil is a global commodity market. If international buyers are willing to pay significantly more for domestically produced oil than domestic refiners are paying the oil gets exported to capture that premium. That global pricing dynamic means domestic consumers are exposed to global price movements regardless of how much oil the country produces in total.

The Strait of Hormuz situation is compounding the problem further. The UAE economy fell 6.8 percent in the most recent month of disruption and Iran's natural gas capacity has been reduced. These are not short-term blips. They are structural disruptions that could maintain upward pressure on energy prices for an extended period.

The Rate Picture Despite All of This

Here is the part that deserves emphasis despite everything that has been pushing rates higher. The spread between the ten-year Treasury yield and mortgage-backed securities is narrowing. In plain terms mortgage rates are moving lower relative to the underlying benchmark that drives them. We are not in the sevens. Rates remain in a range that represents a genuine buying opportunity by historical standards even if the current environment feels elevated compared to the pandemic-era lows that were an anomaly rather than a baseline.

As Rich Bonn explains this is a wonderful time to buy for buyers who are prepared and who understand the current market rather than waiting for conditions that may not materialize the way they are imagining.

A Note on the Upcoming CE Event

For real estate agents in the Houston area Rich Bonn is hosting a major event at Steuart Title's corporate office in the Galleria featuring four hours of continuing education credit. Coach Tim Davis whose strategies have contributed to 519 percent year-over-year business growth will be presenting on personal branding mastery with AI. The second session covers how to get a mortgage when your tax return says no which is one of the most relevant and actionable topics for agents working with self-employed buyers. The link to register is available in the description below.

Reach out to Rich Bonn at Habayit Home Loans with any questions about the Houston market, current rates, or the upcoming event.

Sources

HousingWire.com HoustonAssociationofRealtors.com EnergyInformationAdministration.gov MortgageNewsDaily.com BureauOfLaborStatistics.gov