How a War 7,000 Miles Away Is Shaping the Houston Housing Market

June 23, 2026•3 min read

How a War 7,000 Miles Away Is Shaping the Houston Housing Market

It is a fair question. How does a conflict on the other side of the world end up affecting home prices and mortgages here in Houston? Rich Bonn of Habitat Loans breaks down a busy week of news and what it means for buyers, sellers, and homeowners.

A New Fed Chair Holds the Line

This week brought the first Federal Reserve meeting led by new chairman Kevin Warsh. With inflation running hot last month on the back of higher oil prices, there was real concern that some Fed members would push for a rate increase.

In the end, the Fed held rates steady. But its updated projections now lean toward a possible hike later this year rather than the cut many had expected just months ago. In an unusual twist, former chairman Jerome Powell has chosen to remain on the Fed's Board of Governors rather than step away entirely.

Why Inflation Looks Higher Than It Feels

Here is a nuance worth understanding. Inflation is measured as a rolling twelve-month average, so each new month replaces the oldest one in the calculation. As Rich explains, that means today's elevated readings could ease noticeably once the hottest months roll off.

There is another wrinkle in the housing piece of inflation. Rents have actually softened a bit nationally over the past year, but the government data captures only a small slice of the rental market at a time. That lag means inflation may look a little overstated compared to what is happening on the ground right now.

The Housing Shortage Nobody Solved

One of the most important long-term forces is simple supply and demand. Rich points to the gap between household formations, meaning people moving into their own homes, and housing starts, meaning new homes being built.

When more households are forming than there are new homes being built, that shortfall puts a floor under home values. After more than a decade of underbuilding, this gap is not closing quickly, which continues to support prices over time.

Demand Is Holding Up

Despite higher rates, buyers are still active. Contracts signed on existing homes, known as pending sales, rose about 3.8 percent in May. Since signed contracts tend to become closings a month or two later, that is an encouraging sign for the months ahead.

The Houston Market Right Now

Locally, Rich reports that new listings are up around 2.7 percent compared to a year ago, while pending listings have dipped. That cooldown makes sense, since rates have climbed above where they sat earlier in the year and some buyers are understandably cautious.

Closings were down slightly, but showings are up, which tells Rich that plenty of people are still out there searching. On the rental side, leased listings rose about 5 percent year over year while average lease prices edged down. Whether that reflects genuinely softer rents or simply more lower-priced homes being leased is still worth watching.

A Note for Self-Employed Buyers

If you are self-employed and your bank keeps turning you down, you have options. Some lenders offer bank statement loan programs that qualify borrowers using twelve months of bank statements rather than tax returns.

This kind of flexibility is often hard to find at large banks, and Rich notes it is a particular specialty of his team. It can open doors for business owners whose tax returns do not tell the full story of their income.

Let's Talk

Between Fed decisions, inflation trends, and a shifting local market, there is a lot to process. If you have questions about how any of it affects your plans, Rich Bonn is happy to help you think it through. He has also just published his book, Ordinary People, Serious Wealth, now available on Amazon for anyone interested in building wealth through real estate.